Atherton Market Conditions January 2014

Atherton Market Update January 2014

Atherton has seen a steady decline in the number of homes actively listed but the number of sales has not fallen along with the reduced inventory.  The median sales price has shown a lot of volatility, depending on the mix of homes being sold.  Some highlights of the current market include:

–        Inventory falling steadily but above year-ago level

–        Pending sales remain steady

–        Median sales price is volatile month to month

–        Average sales price above 100% of the average list price for the past three months

The inventory of single family detached homes in Atherton has fallen steadily since June.  There were less than half the homes for sale at the end of January (22) than at the end of June (49).  January’s ending inventory was one more than was on the market a year ago.  Even with the falling inventory, the number of sales that went pending remained quite consistent, between eight and 11 for 12 of the past 13 months.  Closed sales have been a bit less consistent, ranging from six to 12 a month.  During the past twelve months, there was an average of 3.5 months of inventory, which was nearly a full month less than a year ago (4.4 months).

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The median sales price in Atherton is quite volatile, depending on the mix of homes sold.  The median sales price increased in six of the past twelve months, which also means it declined in six of the past 12 months.  Median sales prices were higher than year ago levels for eight of the past 12 months.

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The average sale here has been for more than 100% of the list price for the past three months.  For 2013, the average home sold for about 101% of the average list price, compared to about 99% for 2012.  The average price per square foot has not shown the same type of consistent increase.  In both December 2013 and January 2014, the price per square foot was over $1,000 and was higher than a year earlier.   However, from July through November of 2013, the price per square foot was lower than the previous year and never toped $1,000.  Homes have been taking longer to sell also.  On average, closed sales for the months of November through January were on the market an average of 69 days, compared to 38 for the same period a year earlier.

Price Range Analysis

Homes priced under $3 million accounted for only 14% of Atherton’s inventory at the end of January and 38% of the number of sales that went pending during the month.  Three homes were actively listed at the end of January, one more than at the end of December and the same as a year ago.  Three sales went pending during January, one more than in December of January 2013.  Inventory and sales have been pretty consistently between two and four for the past year.

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The inventory of homes priced from $3 million to $4.999 million has fallen from a high of 13 at the end of May to none at the end of January.  There have been 2-3 sales each month for the past several months.  One year ago, this price range accounted for about a third of Atherton’s inventory and 20% of sales.  38% of the sales that went pending in January were in this segment.

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Homes priced at $ 5 million and up make up the bulk of available inventory here.  86% of Atherton’s actively listed homes were in this segment at the end of January, up from 80% in December and 52% a year ago.  Only 25% of the sales that went pending in January were priced at $5 million or more, compared to 40% a year ago.

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